2.5G and 3G Wireless Market Outlook

2.5G and 3G Wireless Market Outlook
15th July 2002 3G News

The most rapid growth of subscribers to advanced wireless networks will
occur in Latin America and North America, doubling each year in some
cases, according to a recent Wireless Internet Services and Networks
report from Probe Research, Inc.

While these networks have been met with skepticism and uncertainty from
the industry in general, it is anticipated that always-on network
subscribers will represent more than half of all wireless Internet users
worldwide by 2006.

Contrary to the statements of both critics and supporters, these growth
forecasts are based not on higher speeds but on the availability of
services to drive Internet usage and subscriber growth. "Despite claims
2.5G and 3G Wireless Market Outlook
15th July 2002 3G News

The most rapid growth of subscribers to advanced wireless networks will
occur in Latin America and North America, doubling each year in some
cases, according to a recent Wireless Internet Services and Networks
report from Probe Research, Inc.

While these networks have been met with skepticism and uncertainty from
the industry in general, it is anticipated that always-on network
subscribers will represent more than half of all wireless Internet users
worldwide by 2006.

Contrary to the statements of both critics and supporters, these growth
forecasts are based not on higher speeds but on the availability of
services to drive Internet usage and subscriber growth. "Despite claims
from both sides, Probe Research can find no data - for wireless or wired
networks - that correlates increases in speed/bandwidth with user
uptake," explains Hilary Mine, Lead Analyst for Wireless Internet
Infrastructure. "On the contrary, growth always comes as a result of
useful content or carrier moves to encourage use with interesting
handsets or low prices."

Research Director David Chamberlain also points out that the percent of
wireless Internet users on 3G networks will remain small for several
more years. "The largest number of subscribers - over 75 percent in 2005
- will be using 2.5G networks like CDMA 1XRTT, GPRS and EDGE instead of
3G networks like W-CDMA and 1XEV."

Chamberlain also cautions that this is a dangerous period for the
carriers and equipment vendors as they move toward the deployment of
advanced wireless Internet networks. The financial community is
skeptical about 3G network business models, technical issues remain,
billing systems and pricing models are immature, and there are
insufficient compelling applications to stimulate network usage (outside
Japan and Korea).

Probe's report "Global 2.5G and 3G Deployments Through 2006" provides an
analysis of this mercurial market. It offers insight into the evolution
of the networks and the current state of the market, with discussion
specific to individual areas including Asia/Pacific Rim, Europe, Middle
East/Africa, North America and Latin America. It also includes an
evaluation of handsets and infrastructure. Forecasts and models are
presented and segmented by area where appropriate.